ASEAN Perspectives #5: An ASEAN vantage point on US Tariffs
In light of the recent US trade policy shift which unfolded in the Rose Garden on “Liberation Day” April 2nd 2025, and ASEAN countries being, for the most part, targeted by high formulaic tariffs, the Collyer Capital team felt compelled to address these events and offer some perspective.
Reading and listening various analyses, it is difficult to predict how it will all play out because there are some potentially conflicting objectives the US administration is contending with and it is unclear how it will prioritise them. According to analysis by Bain Consulting’s Macro Trends Group, the new weighted average US tariff rate is just under 30% and should generate USD 600b in additional revenue versus USD 100b previously. This kitty may be a welcome development for a government intent on lowering taxes, therefore limiting its willingness to implement (true) tariff reciprocity for countries like Vietnam and India which have signalled intent on negotiating. It is however clear that, as it stands, the tariff levels are a worse case scenario for ASEAN. This paper was therefore designed to provide insight and reflections with that in mind, in the knowledge things may only trend directionally better towards 10%, which seems to be the floor….
